UFC 269 Betting Preview
The final UFC Pay-Per-View of 2021 is just a few days away and there will be not one, but two championship belts on the line in Las Vegas: Charles Oliveira (c) versus Dustin Poirier for the Lightweight Championship and the greatest UFC Women’s fighter of all time, Amanda Nunes (c), defending her Women’s Bantamweight title versus challenger Julianna Pena. This action-packed card also includes fan favorite Sean O’Malley and former champion Cody Garbrandt. Bovada Sportsbook has odds available on every fight, giving you the chance to win real money betting on MMA. Before you start placing bets on all of these great fights, let’s take a closer look at a few of the more popular matchups and uncover some of the best betting value available.
Charles Oliveira (c) +135 vs. Dustin Poirier -160
Coming off two victorious big-money fights versus Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier is nothing but ready to step into the Octagon and claim the UFC Lightweight Championship. Poirier will face off against current Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira in the main event of UFC 269. Charles Oliveira is the current champion after a stunning comeback knockout victory over Michael Chandler at UFC 262. It’s interesting to note that Poirier is the -160 betting favorite, even though Oliveira is the current champion riding a 9-fight win streak. Poirier is arguably the best striker in the Lightweight division, while Oliveira is arguably one of the greatest submission artists. A notable factor is that Oliveira has improved on his striking as of late, but will it be enough to outmatch Poirier? Look for Oliveira to take this fight to the ground and do everything he can to submit Poirier. If you plan on betting on Oliveira, you’re getting good value for him to win via TKO, KO or Submission at +200. Expect this fight to be an all-out war as it is the final main event of 2021.
Amanda Nunes (c) -650 vs. Julianna Pena +475
The co-main event to close out the 2021 UFC calendar year features the greatest female mixed martial artist in UFC history, Amanda Nunes. Nunes returns to the Octagon, with 12 consecutive wins, to defend her women’s Bantamweight title against veteran Julianna Pena. Pena rebounded from a loss in her most recent outing and holds a 6-2 record in her last eight UFC fights. On paper, this fight looks like it shouldn’t be much of a contest; Nunes’ -650 betting line tells you how dominant she’s been over her career. A more favorable betting line would be to wager on Nunes at -340 to win by TKO, KO, DQ or submission. Another popular play is a prop bet on Nunes winning in either the first or second with +140 and +300 payouts, respectively. This seems like very generous betting odds for someone who’s won via early stoppage in four of her last six fights. If you’re the type who enjoys wagering on the longshots with the greatest payout odds, you’ll have no trouble finding value betting on Pena; the challenger is currently available at +550 to win the fight at Bovada Sportsbook.
Raulian Paiva +240 vs. Sean O’Malley -300
This will be the crowd favorite, Sean O’Malley’s third time fighting in 2021. He knocked out Thomas Almeida in March and then came back to beat Kris Moutinho in July to lift his career record to 7-1 in the UFC. The victories served as a successful rebound from his first defeat as a UFC fighter, when he lost via first round TKO to Marlon Vera at UFC 252. His opponent, Paiva, is coming off three straight victories after a slow start to his UFC career which saw him lose his first two fights. Paiva is in for the toughest matchup of his career; O’Malley is seen as the next rising star in the Bantamweight division and carries a career finish rate of 79%. Those are stats generally reserved for the Heavyweight division. To put that in perspective, Paiva carries a career finish rate of just 33%. Look for prop bets on O’Malley to win by TKO or “Yes” for the fight to go the distance to find some good betting lines and value. O’Malley via straight wager at -300 seems like a sure thing and would be a good value add to any existing parlay wager for your other bets on the fight card.
Kai Kara-France +150 vs. Cody Garbrandt -175
Kai Kara-France is set to square off against Cody Garbrandt to begin the main card of UFC 269. Kara-France enters the Octagon with a professional record of 22 wins, 9 loses and 0 draws, with 10 of those victories coming by the way of knockout and 3 by submission. Cody Garbrandt owns a professional record of 12 wins, 3 loses and 0 draws, with 10 knockouts of his own. Although Kara-France has 16 more professional fights than his opponent, he comes into this fight as the betting underdog (+120) with a 2-inch reach disadvantage. Outside of his reach, there doesn’t seem to be very much else supporting Garbrandt’s -145 betting line; he has lost four of his last five fights in the Octagon, three of which were by knockout within the first 2 rounds. To Kara-France’s credit, the Kiwi has yet to be knocked out in his UFC career. If you’re searching for betting value, you may want to bet on this fight not going the distance; Garbrandt has the stamina but most experts believe his best days in the Octagon are behind him. We really like the value on Kara-France and would consider a straight wager bet, a win via TKO prop bet and “NO” to the prop bet of “will the fight go the distance?”