$100k Props Sheet: Peter Bukowski’s Picks
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Will any scoring drive take less time than it takes to sing the National Anthem?
This is an easy, “yes,” because Chris Stapleton will take his time (the over/under is already higher than 2 minutes) and these are two of the most explosive offenses in football. The Eagles and Chiefs each averaged under 3 minutes per drive for the season and when they score, and averaged a score every ~3 drives. The Eagles are particularly likely given how aggressive the Kansas City defense likes to play.
What will the result of the coin toss be?
Tails never fails.
Who will win the coin toss?
Chiefs are the road team so they’ll get to call it. If they call tails, they’ll win the toss because, as we’ve established, tails never fails.
What will the first offensive play of the game be?
A run. The Eagles want to set the tone early with their offensive front and while the Chiefs are not a run-heavy team, they know Philly will likely come out in a two-high look to start the game. It is going to take some body blows to get them to back out of that and running the ball is the best way to accomplish that goal.
Will there be a score in the first six minutes and 30 seconds of the game?
I hate saying no, so I won’t, but it’s also the right play. Andy Reid with extra time to prepare will have a stellar opening script. The flipside of this is also true with the Eagles who play a unique style that could take the Chiefs a drive or two to fully digest. In fact, I like the first drive for either team to feature points.
Which team will score first?
Have a plan with your bets here. If you like the Chiefs to win the toss and expect them to defer, bet the Eagles here for the above reasons. I will be live betting whoever gets the ball to score first even though Super Bowls do tend to take a series or two for each team to get settled. Kansas City has been here before and the Eagles are so tough to prepare for, I don’t think it will matter.
What will the first scoring play of the game be?
Field goals have been the first points of five of the last seven Super Bowls, but last year the Rams scored first with a touchdown. Neither of these teams are afraid to be aggressive on fourth downs in plus territory so I like going touchdown here.
What will the first touchdown of the game be?
A run. The Eagles will get at least two, probably three rushing touchdowns in this game. No one gets more creative with trick plays around the goal line than the Chiefs and I could see a designer run from them as well. If I think most of the touchdowns in the game are going to be rushing, it tracks the first one would be too.
Which team will record the first sack of the game?
Eagles have one of the best sack teams in modern NFL history. The Chiefs have just OK offensive tackles and a quarterback with a high ankle sprain. This is Philly in a walk (no pun intended).
Who will lead at halftime?
In the Super Bowl they won and in the one they lost, the Chiefs started slowly overall. I think the Eagles are going to win anyway, so let’s take Philly to win the first half.
Will Rihanna sing Diamonds for her first song?
No, pure odds play. She has too many bangers to be sure it’ll be this one. Plus if you think Jay-Z is coming (more on that in a second), that can’t be the first song. Just doesn’t make sense.
Will Jay-Z, Drake or Eminem appear on stage during Rihanna’s halftime performance?
Considering Jay-Z is working with the NFL on halftime shows, this feels like an easy yes. Rihanna has too many great tracks with incredibly famous people on them, or songs she’s featured on, not to bring out one of these other artists.
What will be the first scoring play in the second half?
If you don’t think there will be a lot of field goals in this game—and I don’t—then touchdown is the play here.
Who will finish with more passing yards?
Mahomes is the easy call here. Against a stellar defense on one leg, he threw for 326 yards. Just philosophically, we can treat this like fantasy football where opportunity is key. The Eagles want to run the ball. The Chiefs want to pass it. Don’t overthink it.
Who will finish with more receiving yards? Smith-Schuster or Brown?
Who will finish with more rushing yards?
Miles Sanders and I honestly don’t even understand the question because McKinnon is the pass-catcher more than the rusher in the Chiefs offense. Sanders is the main back for Philly. Case closed.
Will there be a missed Field Goal or Extra Point in the game?
No is the heavy favorite for extra points and as I mentioned these are two aggressive teams going on fourth down but Harrison Butker was one of the least accurate kickers in the NFL, making just 75% of his kicks. Only four full-time kickers were worse. I’ll take the yes side of this and bank on Reid getting a little too conservative settling for a long field goal.
Will there be a defensive touchdown in the game?
I always want to say yes, but I don’t see it because the team speed is too good. Mahomes and Hurts don’t throw a ton of the kind of out-breaking routes that often wind up in pick-sixes and Hurts in particularly has the juice to chase down plenty of DBs. Sack fumbles rarely result in touchdown returns, so the odds say no on this one.
Will there be multiple interceptions in the game?
I like the yes here. This Eagles defensive back group ballhawks as well as any team in the league, tied for fourth in interceptions during the year. Kansas City didn’t do quite as well, but this is easily the toughest test of Jalen Hurts’ NFL career as a passer and with all the exotic looks Steve Spagnuolo will give him, it won’t be at all surprising to see Hurts fooled or pressured into an interception. Burrow threw a pair of picks in the AFC Championship Game even with backup Chiefs DBs out there. Even the best pocket passers will get got by this crew.
Who will have more turnovers in Super Bowl LVII?
Philadelphia posted the fifth-lowest turnover number in the league during the regular season, whereas the Chiefs were below average giving the ball away. The Eagles have the better defense and were already the less turnover-prone offense, so the Chiefs are the easy answer here.
Will the game go to overtime?
I’m not going to predict the game will go to OT, but the line is 1.5 at Bovada. This is expected to be a CLOSE game. Overtime in Super Bowls is extremely rare, but so are 1.5-point lines. The prop is +950 at Bovada right now. I’ll take some action on that.
Which team will win Super Bowl LVII?
I predicted earlier this week the Eagles would win, can’t come off that now.
Will the margin of victory be 10 or more?
I don’t think there will be, but Bovada will let you bet on the final score being in certain ranges and I do think there’s value in going big on this. There’s absolutely a path to a blowout here. The Chiefs beat the brakes off the 49ers in the middle of the season. The Eagles boast more talent on both sides of the ball than Kansas City and if Mahomes can’t move and/or the Chiefs receivers stay injured, Philly winning some 34-24 game doesn’t feel all that unlikely. It’s not what I would predict happens, but the odds make it enticing to bet.
Will a non-QB win Super Bowl LVII MVP?
I don’t see it. I want to, but I don’t. If Travis Kelce has 11 catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns, which probably means the Chiefs scored 30, Mahomes threw for 300 and Kansas City won. It’s going to Mahomes in that case. Defensive players don’t win this award so Chris Jones or Darius Slay probably won’t win unless Slay gets 2 INTs and the Eagles win 17-14 contest. It’s the boring answer, but it’s the right one.